Latest Commodity News

Mexico's National Oil Company (NOC) has announced the Pemex Strategic Plan 2025–2035, a roadmap aimed at significantly increasing oil production, decreasing debt, and enhancing energy independence through more investment. The plan outlines a target to produce 1.8 million barrels of oil per day by 2030 and increase natural gas generation, alongside promising energy transition projects involving hydrogen and geothermal energies. As the country's largest and most significant fiscal contributor, Pemex plays a vital role in both energy security and economic stability.

Wall Street analysts have responded positively towards the government's ambitious plan, particularly praising the potential development of the Pimienta and Eagle Ford formations. These formations are expected to yield a combined production of 250,000 barrels of liquids and 500 million cubic feet of natural gas daily by the early 2030s. For these developments to succeed, significant investment and favorable contracts with international operators are needed, as well as an emphasis on overcoming natural gas production challenges by leveraging unconventional reserves.

Mexico is also investing in its LNG sector with plans to create five major LNG export terminals along the Pacific Coast. This initiative aims to make Mexico a major LNG exporter, primarily sourcing feed gas from the U.S. Permian basin, allowing it to benefit from favorable pricing dynamics. While this plan presents substantial economic opportunities, it could be hindered by Pemex's financial difficulties, with the company facing a high debt load and repeated losses over the years.

Despite its challenges, there is a glimmer of hope for Pemex, as the government is planning a $12 billion financial injection to help alleviate its debt. Positive shifts in exchange rates and reduced costs have helped the company post profits recently. Forecasts suggest that with governmental support and potential rating upgrades, Pemex may gradually improve its financial standing and secure better financing for its future projects.

The U.S. is aiming to purchase up to $500 million worth of cobalt to enhance its defense stockpiles as part of a strategy to strengthen its critical mineral supplies. This initiative comes in response to significant disruptions in the rare earths market, particularly due to China's restrictions which resulted in a 75% decline in exports of rare earth magnets in June. Many automotive manufacturers have faced production halts due to these shortages.

In March, former President Donald Trump utilized emergency powers to promote domestic production of essential minerals, intending to reduce reliance on China's dominance in this sector. In a bid to address these supply chain challenges, the White House appointed David Copley, a former mining executive, to lead an office dedicated to fortifying supply chains at the National Security Council.

The U.S. Department of Defense, through a recent tender document, has revealed plans to procure approximately 7,480 tonnes of alloy-grade cobalt over the next five years. The procurement effort focuses on specific suppliers, particularly units of Vale SA from Canada, Sumitomo Metal Mining from Japan, and Glencore Nikkelverk from Norway. The projected purchase value is substantial, ranging between $2 million and $500 million during this period.

British consumers have shown a slight increase in confidence in August 2025, following a recent interest rate cut by the Bank of England. The GfK consumer confidence index has risen to -17, the highest level since December, up from -19 in July. This uptick is largely attributed to improved feelings about personal finances among households.

Despite this improvement, consumers remain cautious and are closely monitoring economic developments, especially related to inflation and potential tax hikes. Neil Bellamy, the consumer insights director at GfK, expressed that consumers are still in a 'wait-and-see mode', indicating that unexpected changes could lead to quick shifts in sentiment.

In July, inflation rose to 3.8%, raising concerns that this could hinder consumer confidence in the future. Additionally, discussions about possible tax increases in the autumn budget, as mentioned by finance minister Rachel Reeves, could further affect consumer sentiment. The GfK index also reported a decline in savings confidence, dropping to +30 in August.

Global crude and condensate departures were high in the first half of August 2025, averaging about 41 million barrels per day, remaining above the ten-year seasonal average. Strong demand is noted during the peak summer months, particularly with increased supply from South America led by Brazil and Guyana, along with production hikes in the Middle East. As OPEC+ continues to ease output cuts, concerns arise about potential oversupply that may impact prices in the fourth quarter.

Despite fears surrounding the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts and increased exports, the crude market remains balanced at this time, aided by solid demand. South America’s export levels showed a significant rise, while exports from the Middle East did not see a surge due to some member countries adjusting their production levels in response to past overproduction and the high oil demand driven by summer temperatures.

As summer ends, analysts predict that domestic demand within OPEC+ will drop, combined with rising production, potentially affecting the current price stability in the market. There have been signs of narrowing backwardation in the Dubai market, suggesting traders expect a plentiful supply soon. This could ease market tightness following the peak travel season, despite expectations of slowing demand and rising supply impacting oil prices.

The Brent-Dubai premium showed drastic decreases, indicating downward pressure on prices. Although inventories remain low, the anticipated combination of reduced demand and increased supply creates concerns of future oversupply, potentially swayed by geopolitical and macroeconomic events that could further shift supply-demand dynamics.

Scott Moe, the Premier of Saskatchewan, is set to visit China to address the recent imposition of significant tariffs on canola seed imports. This move follows a preliminary duty of 75.8% imposed by China after an anti-dumping investigation, heightening an existing trade dispute. As the largest canola seed market for Canada, any sustained tariffs could severely impact the Canadian canola industry.

In support of farmers, Canadian Federal Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald highlighted the economic significance of the canola industry, which employs around 200,000 individuals and contributes C$43 billion to the economy. He emphasized his commitment to work alongside the farming community during this challenging period.

In light of escalating tensions, with China responding to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, there is uncertainty about the motivations behind China's latest actions. Moe’s visit aims to negotiate the removal of the tariffs and seek federal assistance for the affected agricultural sector. The situation remains fluid, with farmers looking for support as the dispute unfolds.

Russia and India are exploring ways to continue their oil trade despite potential tariffs from the United States. President Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian exports if they persist in purchasing Russian oil. Russian diplomats have mentioned a special mechanism to facilitate this trade, yet details remain undisclosed.

Following Trump's warning, Indian refiners momentarily moved away from Russian crude. However, they quickly resumed buying due to the attractive pricing of Russia's Urals blend. The indication is that Russia might offer additional discounts to enhance demand, with estimates suggesting Indian imports could save between 5% and 7%.

India has become a leading buyer of Russian crude since 2022, largely due to these discounts, which play a significant role in reducing the country's oil import bill. Analysts note that if India were to halt its Russian oil purchases, it could lead to a rise in their import expenses by $9 billion this fiscal year.

The dynamic is complex, with the U.S. having initially encouraged India to purchase Russian oil to manage global prices post-sanctions. Now the narrative has shifted, posing potential repercussions in both U.S. and global oil markets if India continues on this path without concern for U.S. sanctions.

Chile's finance minister, Mario Marcel, has resigned amid a cabinet reshuffle led by President Gabriel Boric. Marcel was viewed as a key stabilizing force during Boric's administration and resigned for personal reasons. Boric announced Marcel's replacement as Economy Minister Nicolas Grau, emphasizing a commitment to fiscal responsibility and long-term stability for the country.

Nicolas Grau, who previously served as economy minister and was involved in Boric's 2021 presidential campaign, brings experience in foreign investment and lithium contracts. His appointment comes at a time when there has been criticism about delays in important projects, including a lithium cathode plant associated with Chinese companies. Grau also resigned to take up his new position, with Alvaro Garcia taking over as economy minister.

The changes underscore the ongoing challenges faced by Boric’s government, particularly regarding the economy, which has been hit by high inflation and slow growth post-pandemic. Marcel has been credited with stabilizing conditions and securing key legislative initiatives, including reforms in mining royalties and pensions. With presidential elections on the horizon, these cabinet changes signify the administration's attempt to maintain continuity while adapting to evolving economic challenges.

Global equity markets experienced a decline amid investor uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium. Traders were particularly focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, hoping for insights on a possible U.S. rate cut in September. Spot gold prices dropped, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar, which rose 0.43% against other currencies.

As the symposium began, U.S. Treasury yields also increased. Oil futures saw an uptick due to signs of robust U.S. demand, alongside ongoing uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine. Analysts indicated that the market was adjusting its expectations for a September rate cut following the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes.

In Europe, business activity showed positive growth, with Germany and France's economic performance improving. However, concerns over tech stock performances emerged, linked to underwhelming returns on AI investments. U.S. President Donald Trump sought to apply pressure on the Fed, targeting a board member over political allegations, which raised questions about the Fed's independence. Despite a small rise in gold prices attributed to these concerns, the overall market reaction remained subdued.

U.S. stocks experienced a decline while the dollar and Treasury yields rose, primarily due to stronger factory data that has raised uncertainties about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. Market attention is now directed towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, where his outlook on interest rates will be evaluated. The latest economic data presents mixed signals, making it crucial for traders to decipher its implications for the central bank's future decisions.

Despite the uncertainty, record inflows of foreign investments into U.S. assets were noted, contradicting fears of a weakening U.S. market under pressures from domestic policies. Recent Treasury International Capital figures indicate that foreign investors purchased a significant amount of U.S. securities, including substantial net inflows in the second quarter of the year. This suggests that the narrative of a failing U.S. economy does not align with the reality of strong capital inflows.

The disconnect between expectations of substantial Fed rate cuts and the healthy U.S. economic outlook raises questions about the market's trajectory. Analysts have observed that despite expectations of a 125 basis point rate cut by next year, U.S. economic performance appears stable, with GDP growth forecasts being revised upward. This situation suggests a perplexing contradiction, marking an intriguing phase in market dynamics as investors continue to favor U.S. equities over government securities.

Libya's eastern parliament is poised to approve a maritime agreement with Turkey, allowing the country to explore for oil and gas within Libyan waters. This represents a shift in support towards Turkey, especially after the eastern region traditionally aligned with military leader Khalifa Haftar and opposed Turkish involvement. Meanwhile, Tripoli, which has been closely allied with Ankara, is supportive of this deal.

If this agreement is ratified, Turkish ships could begin exploratory and drilling operations in a designated area between Turkey and Crete. This development could strengthen Turkey’s claims in the eastern Mediterranean, which might further heighten tensions with Greece and Cyprus. Recent discussions between Turkey and Haftar indicate a warming of relations, with Turkey considering military support and resuming direct flights to Benghazi.

The maritime agreement aligns with Libya burgeoning its energy sector, with significant oil production reported recently. National Oil Corporation (NOC) aims to enhance output to 2 million barrels per day by 2028, backed by ongoing foreign investments. As regional powers navigate shifting alliances and territorial claims, Libya faces the challenge of ensuring the operational stability of its energy fields amidst geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the overlapping exploration claims with Greece.