Latest Commodity News

India’s battery storage installations are expected to grow very quickly, nearly doubling every year through the 2032 fiscal year. A report by Nuvama estimates total battery energy storage system capacity will rise to 302 gigawatt-hours by 2032 from 6.3 gigawatt-hours today, a compound annual growth rate of 91%. India’s Central Electricity Authority has a lower estimate of 236 gigawatt-hours by FY32, but expects 1,840 gigawatt-hours by 2047.

The rapid expansion of renewable energy in India requires much more battery storage to support the grid and integrate solar and wind power reliably. The India Energy Storage Alliance says India may need about 888 gigawatt-hours of energy storage by 2035-36 to meet rising electricity demand. Ashok Jhunjhunwala of IIT Madras says storage will be one of the defining technologies of India’s energy transition, and renewables need storage to create a stronger, more reliable, and more affordable power system.

India plans to introduce a regulation from July 1, 2027, requiring solar and wind project developers to install battery storage at their sites. This is intended to manage renewable output better and reduce curtailments. Despite a major solar and wind installation boom in recent years, India has struggled to fully use these capacities because output is often curtailed due to a lack of battery storage.

Japan’s trade minister, Ryosei Akazawa, has called for stronger cooperation between oil producers and consumers, and urged Asian countries to expand oil stockpiles and infrastructure. Speaking at a virtual International Energy Forum, he said Japan wants to serve as a bridge between Middle Eastern oil producers and Asian importers to help stabilize global energy supply.

Energy security has become a higher priority than reducing reliance on oil and gas, according to the message. The Asia Zero Emission Community, led by Japan, has shifted its focus from emissions to oil supply and agreed earlier this month to build larger oil inventories in Asia and coordinate releases when necessary. Japan’s extensive stockpiling experience is seen as highly valuable.

Japan released crude oil from its strategic reserves in the spring as part of an International Energy Agency-coordinated effort to release 400 million barrels of crude and oil products. It holds the world’s third-largest strategic oil stockpile, after China and the United States. In April, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated China’s inventory at 1.397 billion barrels, the U.S. reserve at 413 million barrels, and Japan’s strategic crude inventory at 263 million barrels.

Because Japan has few natural resources and relied on the Middle East for more than 90% of its crude imports, much of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict in the Middle East has pushed Japan to seek alternative crude supplies. The focus on stockpiles and supply coordination reflects concerns about energy security and the vulnerability of oil import routes.

Supertanker freight rates have eased slightly after reaching a record earlier this month. The cost to charter a very large crude carrier from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China was $634,974 per day, just below the record of more than $637,000 per day set on October 8. These high shipping costs are making U.S. crude less competitive in Asia.

Rates have climbed sharply this year because Middle Eastern producers have used ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. They move oil through the strait on smaller shuttle tankers and then load it onto supertankers in the Gulf of Oman. This method is inefficient and has reduced the number of available tankers. Earlier this month, supertanker rates from the Gulf to Asia reached $1.4 million per day.

June Goh, a senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the main causes are inefficient ship-to-ship transfers and more Atlantic Basin crude moving to the Far East, which leaves fewer open tankers. Freight rates on the U.S. Gulf Coast-to-China route have jumped by as much as 300%, and rates from Fujairah to Asia have also risen. Even so, Asian buyers may have few alternatives, so imports of U.S. crude may not fall much.

A Vitol executive described the situation as moving from a crude crisis to a product crisis and now to a shipping crisis. Even if price differences make some trades unprofitable, more Atlantic crude is likely to keep flowing to Asia as long as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz can be disrupted.

Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, one in the strait and the other off the coast of Oman. One was a Suezmax tanker carrying Iraqi crude, which was hit by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board. Two sailors are still missing. The other was a product carrier that was hit by a drone.

India's foreign ministry called for immediate de-escalation and a resolution through dialogue and diplomacy. It said attacks on commercial vessels, seafarers, and civilian infrastructure must stop, and that freedom of navigation and safe maritime commerce must be upheld under international law.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has increased attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over the past couple of weeks, targeting vessels trying to transit the strait in dark mode along a southern corridor near Oman. The U.S. Navy is striking Iranian-linked vessels, raising shipping risks. The IRGC Navy warned that any ship in the Strait of Hormuz that turns off its navigation and identification systems will be treated as hostile and dealt with severely.

Meanwhile, President Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Neither side has confirmed it, and reports say it is a narrower refinery-only proposal. The news pressured oil prices, with Brent trading above $103 per barrel and WTI over $90 per barrel.

Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar and lower oil prices. Investors are waiting for important US inflation reports this week to better understand the Federal Reserve's next policy move. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,198.19 per ounce after earlier reaching its highest level since October 2. US gold futures for December delivery also gained 0.1% to $4,221.80.

Oil prices fell after President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting for details. Lower oil prices can reduce concerns about inflation and interest rates, which supports gold. The US dollar was steady, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates can reduce its appeal.

Markets are focused on the US Consumer Price Index on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index and retail sales data on Thursday. Traders see a 17% chance of a rate hike in October and an 86% chance by December. US consumer sentiment weakened in early October as the rising cost of living linked to the Middle East conflict hurt views of the economy. Among other metals, silver rose 0.4% to $61.02 per ounce, platinum gained 0.8% to $1,701.40, and palladium climbed 0.8% to $1,156.81.

Heavy flooding in Thailand that began in mid-September has killed at least 71 people, the Interior Ministry said on Monday. The deaths occurred between September 16 and October 12, a period when flooding was reported across 51 provinces.

As of October 12, 21 provinces still have areas affected by floodwaters, including the capital, Bangkok. The Ministry said 908,000 households have been impacted by the disaster.

The flooding has disrupted large parts of the country and continues to pose risks in affected provinces. The reported death toll and household figures highlight the scale of the emergency, with Bangkok among the areas still dealing with flood conditions.

Oil markets were thrown into confusion after US President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine was surprised by the move and Russia did not confirm it. Analysts suspect Trump was trying to make a deal real by announcing it without an actual agreement, especially as Russia continued to hit Ukraine's power infrastructure over the weekend. Kyiv has offered such a ceasefire for months, but Moscow has shown no interest in accepting it.

The proposal also included Russia increasing diesel exports to the US and world markets, which appears unlikely. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have left Russia short of diesel for its own needs. The US is already the world's largest diesel exporter, importing Russian energy during the war is illegal, and the promised volumes are tiny compared with US consumption. Even so, the chance of more supply pushed Brent down almost 2% to around $103 a barrel in choppy trading. Holidays in Japan and a partial US holiday made for thin trading, with Asian shares mostly lower, US and European stock futures slightly higher, the dollar a touch weaker, and gold nudging up.

Earnings season begins with major US banks reporting from Tuesday, and expectations are very high because of AI-related profits. About 70% of S&P 500 companies report this month, with most hyperscalers out in the last week of October. Average earnings per share growth is expected at 30%, with companies benefiting from AI infrastructure spending accounting for more than half of that growth, while hyperscaler capital spending is seen rising 116% year over year. Tariff refunds of $69 billion in the third quarter should also provide a tailwind. The main data test is US CPI on Wednesday, where a hotter headline of 3.7% should be balanced by a cooler core of 2.5%; any upside surprise could jolt markets, especially with futures pricing only an 18% chance of a rate hike this month.

Market watchers will also focus on appearances by Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge and Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack.

A US national security investigation into copper imports, launched in February 2025, created a large premium for copper on the CME over the London Metal Exchange. Traders moved metal into the United States to capture that price gap. Tariffs announced in late July covered copper products but not refined copper, and the White House has not clarified its policy on refined copper since then.

As a result, the United States now holds more than 1 million metric tons of copper, likely the second-largest stockpile after China's strategic reserve. CME registered stocks rose from 88,595 metric tons in February last year to 711,617 tons. LME warehouses in the US hold another 127,300 tons of registered stocks and 123,828 tons of off-warrant stocks. Citi analysts estimate total US inventories at about 1.1 million tons.

This exceeds the Cold War-era National Defense Stockpile peak of just over 1 million short tons, or about 900,000 metric tons, in the early 1960s. But today's stockpile is held by commercial firms, not the government, so it could leave if market conditions change. Rising cash premiums in London and Shanghai are pulling against the CME premium, and the outcome depends on whether refined copper tariffs are imposed. Possible plans include phased tariffs of 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028.

A fixed tariff might not keep copper in the US if a global shortage pushes international prices above CME prices. Another option is to place copper in Project Vault, a new public-private mineral reserve, but that would be costly and rare earths may be prioritized. For now, the White House is keeping markets guessing, a strategy that buys time while it decides what to do with the growing copper stockpile.

Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports remain severely limited by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even as Middle Eastern oil exports recover. Qatar is the world's second-largest LNG producer, with about a fifth of global capacity at nearly 80 million metric tons per year. The conflict forced much of Qatar's main LNG complex at Ras Laffan to shut down, and Iranian missile attacks knocked out around 17% of its export capacity. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Qatar's economy will contract by 8.6% in 2026, compared with pre-war expectations for 6.1% growth. The disruption has left the global LNG market seriously strained.

Oil shipments through Hormuz have improved, rising to around 80% of pre-war levels at 16 million barrels per day in September. This has allowed Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq to raise production. LNG traffic, however, has barely recovered. Qatar's September LNG exports reached 1.6 million tons, still less than a quarter of the pre-war average, and about a third of those volumes went to Kuwait. October exports are on track to fall to just 0.6 million tons. QatarEnergy has extended force majeure notices, meaning it still cannot deliver many cargoes to customers in Asia and Europe. US LNG exports rose about 14% to 123 million tons in 2026, but not enough to fill the gap. Asian and European LNG prices hit their highest level since early 2023, nearly tripling from pre-war levels.

Restarting Qatar's LNG industry is not simple. Its facilities consist of 14 production units supplied by gas from the North Field. To increase LNG exports, Qatar must first raise gas production, but the raw gas contains large volumes of condensate that must be separated and exported. If condensate cannot be shipped reliably, storage could fill up and force gas production to be curbed. Qatar also has limited LNG storage capacity. The global LNG tanker fleet is much smaller than the oil tanker fleet, so freight rates are higher and shippers are less willing to risk sending expensive carriers through Hormuz. Qatar needs assurance that all ships can transit safely, not just occasional passage.

Qatar is expanding its LNG capacity to 142 million tons per year by 2030, which would give it roughly a quarter of the global market. But new capacity is of little value if the export route remains uncertain. Without a credible and durable agreement involving Iran, the United States and regional powers to secure the strait, the expansion project may remain stranded. In the meantime, the global LNG market has little hope of a speedy recovery.

Middle Eastern crude oil exports have mostly recovered to pre-war levels as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. In September, the region’s total crude and condensate exports, excluding Iran, averaged about 18.11 million tons per week, close to the 18.22 million tons per week seen before the conflict with Iran began in late February. However, Middle Eastern fuel exports are still less than half their pre-war levels because many regional refineries have been damaged.

That gap creates an opportunity for Asian refiners. Asia holds about 37% of global refining capacity, and plants in India, China, South Korea and Singapore are well placed to turn Middle Eastern crude into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Refining profits have risen in all regions this year because fuel prices have increased more than crude oil costs. As more Gulf crude becomes available, Asia’s refining hubs may capture more of the profit and pricing power linked to those barrels while Gulf refineries remain impaired.

Before the war, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates had invested heavily in refining and petrochemicals to earn more value from each barrel. The conflict with Iran has disrupted that push. About 20 Middle Eastern refineries have been hit, taking more than 2.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity offline. Refineries are complex and harder to repair than oil wells, so crude production and exports are likely to recover faster than refining capacity. That leaves Middle Eastern producers more dependent on outside refiners.

India looks especially well positioned because it is less than four days by sea from major Gulf export terminals and close to fuel markets in South and Southeast Asia. Its refining capacity has grown by about a third since 2010 to roughly 5.1 million barrels per day, and it hosts the Jamnagar complex, the world’s largest refinery. China has the world’s largest refining system, at about 18.8 million barrels per day, while South Korea and Singapore could also benefit from higher utilization and exports. The broader effect may be a shift in oil-market influence away from crude suppliers and toward large Asian refining and export centers, at least until Gulf refineries are rebuilt.