Latest Commodity News

India-flagged carriers transporting liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have recently been allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a shift in Iran's stance towards Indian vessels. This chokepoint is crucial for energy flows, with 90% of India's LPG imports passing through it. The easing of restrictions comes as India faces a significant drop in LPG demand, with a 17% decrease compared to the previous year and a 26% decline from earlier in February.

To manage the supply shortage, the Indian government has prioritized household LPG supplies by cutting back on deliveries to commercial establishments and industries. This decision reflects the reliance of around 60% of Indian households on LPG as their primary cooking fuel, making the situation critical for consumers.

Recent shipping data indicates that Iran is facilitating the passage of certain Indian LPG carriers, with vessels like Jag Vasant and Pine Gas reportedly traveling from the UAE to Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz. These ships are expected to head towards India, as LPG exports from the Gulf have reached their lowest levels in a year. The trend shows a shift towards Iranian-controlled routes for bulk carriers and LPG vessels, highlighting Iran's role in managing selective passage through this vital corridor.

Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $85 per barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average $79, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs. This forecast reflects an increase from previous estimates of $77 for Brent and $72 for WTI. The analysts noted that the ongoing crisis is anticipated to peak with a supply loss of 17 million barrels per day.

As of the latest update, Brent crude was trading at $112.69 per barrel, and WTI was at $99.60 per barrel, both showing significant increases. This surge in prices comes as tensions escalate following an ultimatum issued by President Donald Trump to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or facing severe consequences.

In response to the ultimatum, Iran threatened to target the energy and water infrastructure of U.S. allies in the region. Goldman Sachs predicts that the disruption in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will last for about six weeks, after which oil shipments are expected to gradually recover. However, some analysts express skepticism, suggesting that the supply disruption could extend for months, highlighting the structural risks associated with the concentration of oil production in the Middle East.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, announced that the agency is prepared to release additional volumes of crude oil from storage if necessary. This statement was made during his visit to Australia, where he emphasized the importance of analyzing market conditions and consulting with member countries before making such decisions.

Earlier this month, the IEA had already planned to release 400 million barrels of crude from OECD reserves to mitigate the impact of disruptions in tanker traffic in the Middle East. Birol clarified that the decision to release more oil would not be based on specific price levels but rather on the overall market situation.

This coordinated release is the largest emergency oil release ever organized by the IEA and marks only the sixth intervention since the agency's inception after the oil shocks of the 1970s. The current crisis is exacerbated by military tensions in the Gulf, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and LNG trade. Birol described the ongoing oil supply crisis as unprecedented, surpassing the Arab oil embargo and the impacts of the war in Ukraine.

Protests erupted in Greece as the trial for a devastating train crash that claimed 57 lives in 2023 is set to begin. The crash, which involved a passenger train colliding with a freight train, has been described as the worst rail disaster in the country's history. It has sparked widespread outrage and demands for accountability from the government, with many citizens blaming state negligence and corruption for the tragedy.

The trial will see 36 individuals, including a station master and rail managers, face charges related to the crash, such as negligent manslaughter and causing bodily harm. Notably, no politicians are being prosecuted, which has fueled further protests. The trial is expected to include testimonies from over 350 witnesses, including victims' families and survivors.

The investigation into the crash revealed significant safety deficiencies in the rail network, exacerbated by years of neglect during Greece's financial crisis. A European Union-funded safety project initiated in 2014 was found to be significantly delayed, raising concerns about the government's commitment to railway safety. The current government has promised reforms and justice, but public sentiment remains skeptical.

Indian retail fuel prices remain stable despite a significant increase in the oil basket price, which has risen to over $155 per barrel. This surge is attributed to supply disruptions in the Middle East, although Iran has indicated that it will allow Indian tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Indian oil basket reached $156.29 per barrel, marking a 120% increase due to these disruptions.

Refiners, both state-owned and private, are currently absorbing the price surge, and industry executives have assured that there is no immediate supply crunch as there are ample oil stocks available. The Indian oil ministry has confirmed that all refineries are operating at high capacity and that adequate crude inventories are in place to meet demand.

India, being the third-largest importer of crude oil globally, relies on imports for over 80% of its oil needs. The country has a diverse supplier base, sourcing from around 40 oil-rich nations. However, it remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices, as its oil basket includes various crude types, including Oman and Dubai sour crude along with sweet Brent.

Oil prices began the week at elevated levels, with WTI crude trading at $98.61 and Brent crude at $111.90. These prices reflect a stable yet uncertain market environment, influenced by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. The situation is expected to lead to volatility in oil prices as traders brace for potential developments.

President Trump issued a warning to Iran, stating that the U.S. would strike Iranian power plants within 48 hours unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran responded with threats of retaliation against U.S. military interests and energy infrastructure in the region. This ultimatum is set to create significant market fluctuations, especially as the deadline approaches.

The conflict's escalation has prompted key figures in the oil industry, such as the CEOs of Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Cooperation, to alter their plans for the upcoming CERAWeek energy conference. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has indicated its readiness to release more oil reserves if necessary, emphasizing the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize the market.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has significantly impacted global oil markets, with U.S. oil prices rising less sharply than those in other regions. Following U.S.-Israeli air strikes on Iran, the situation escalated, leading to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil and gas flows. Brent crude prices surged by about 55%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased by 50%, highlighting a growing divergence between these benchmarks.

Asia, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil imports, faces the most significant challenges, with physical crude prices soaring above $150 a barrel. As Middle Eastern supplies dwindle, buyers in Asia and Europe are increasingly sourcing oil from the U.S., tightening domestic supplies and pushing U.S. crude exports to record levels. This interconnectedness in oil markets demonstrates that domestic abundance does not guarantee immunity from global energy shocks.

Despite rising prices at the pump, President Trump remains confident in the U.S. ability to manage the situation, citing recent successes in Venezuela. However, U.S. shale producers are hesitant to increase production due to past volatility and current constraints. The ongoing conflict raises concerns about the long-term implications for U.S. consumers, as higher fuel costs and inflation could have political repercussions in an election year.

The future of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with potential military interventions from allies. Even if the strait reopens, it may take weeks for Middle Eastern producers to restore oil production, leading to a persistent supply gap. The conflict has tested the notion that U.S. oil abundance can fully shield the country from global energy shocks, revealing vulnerabilities in the current market structure.

Iran has announced its intention to retaliate against an attack on its electricity sector by targeting Israel's power plants and those supplying U.S. military bases in the region. This declaration was made by the Revolutionary Guards, indicating a shift from earlier threats aimed at desalination plants, which are vital for providing drinking water in Gulf countries.

The statement from the Revolutionary Guards came in response to comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned that Iranian power plants would be targeted if Iran did not allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz within a specified timeframe. The situation highlights the escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, particularly concerning critical infrastructure.

The Revolutionary Guards emphasized their commitment to respond to threats in a manner proportional to the level of deterrence created by those threats. This indicates a potential for further escalation in the conflict, particularly in the energy sector, which is crucial for both Iran and its adversaries.

The ongoing conflict involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran has led to significant consumption of munitions, particularly those containing tungsten. This super-hard metal is essential for creating missiles that can penetrate armor and underground structures. Unlike other tungsten products that can be recycled, tungsten used in munitions is permanently consumed upon detonation, leading to a depletion of available stocks.

The tungsten market was already facing challenges before China imposed tighter export controls in early 2025, which have exacerbated the situation. Prices for tungsten have skyrocketed, with ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices rising dramatically from under $400 to over $2,200 per metric ton. This surge has made tungsten one of the best-performing commodities recently, surpassing gains in other metals like copper and gold.

China dominates the tungsten supply chain, accounting for about 80% of global production. Recent export restrictions have led to a nearly 40% drop in tungsten exports, while domestic demand in China continues to rise. Although non-Chinese production has increased, particularly from Kazakhstan, it remains insufficient to meet the growing demand from the defense sector, which is expected to consume more tungsten as military stockpiles are replenished.

The competition for tungsten and other critical minerals is intensifying, especially as military buyers can outbid civilian sectors. This situation poses challenges for industries that rely on tungsten for electronics and other applications. The current geopolitical tensions are likely to accelerate efforts in the West to achieve greater mineral autonomy, but establishing new supply chains will take time, which may not be available given the urgency of the situation.

A fuel reservoir at Primorsk, Russia's largest western oil export hub, caught fire following a drone attack. This incident was confirmed by Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, through a message on Telegram. Primorsk is a crucial facility for Russia, capable of exporting over 1 million barrels of crude oil daily, and it plays a significant role in the export of Urals crude and high-quality diesel.

Last year, diesel exports from Primorsk reached an impressive 16.8 million metric tons, highlighting the port's importance in Russia's energy sector. The ongoing conflict with Ukraine has led to continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, specifically targeting oil exporting facilities and refineries to weaken Moscow's war economy.

This is not the first attack on Primorsk; it was previously targeted in September, which resulted in interruptions to oil loadings. Recent reports indicate that 35 drones have been shot down in the Leningrad region during recent attacks, with the Russian defense ministry claiming a total of 249 drones have been intercepted across the country overnight.