Latest Commodity News

Since early December, over two dozen tankers have switched to a Russian flag in a bid to evade seizure by U.S. forces. Data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence indicates that 26 tankers are now sailing under the Russian flag, a significant increase from only six in November and 14 in the preceding five months. This surge in flag-switching follows the U.S. seizure of the tanker Skipper off Venezuela's coast, which intensified concerns regarding the ability to evade sanctions.

Of the 1,500 tankers transporting crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, approximately 13% are now flagged in Russia. This trend suggests the emergence of an illicit dark-fleet network. Experts highlight that this situation reveals a more complex issue, as sanctions evasion has escalated to a strategic challenge entwined with state protection and geopolitical risk. Advocacy groups such as United Against Nuclear Iran are closely monitoring these developments.

The flag-switching continues despite previous incidents where the U.S. seized tankers, including the Bella 1, which had faced sanctions due to alleged affiliations with Hezbollah. Analysts suggest that the practice of reflagging is a persistent trend within the dark-fleet market. The anticipation is that this number will continue to grow, indicating a shift in the dynamics of maritime compliance and the geopolitical landscape surrounding oil shipments.

Crude oil imports into China reached an unprecedented high last year, averaging 11.55 million barrels a day, totaling 557.73 million tons, which is a 4.4% increase compared to 2024. The data indicates that December marked a record month with imports averaging 13.18 million barrels daily. This information challenges the narrative that China's oil demand is declining significantly due to the electric vehicle trend.

While some of the crude oil imported has been stockpiled, increased Chinese purchases have been providing support to global oil prices. Despite ongoing OPEC+ production increases and worries about the overall growth of global oil demand driven by irregular U.S. trade policies, China's import activity has helped mitigate these concerns.

Looking ahead, projections suggest that China will continue building its crude oil reserves into 2026, maintaining a stockpiling rate of about one million barrels per day. Plans to construct 11 new oil storage facilities between 2025 and 2026 will increase total storage capacity significantly, adding approximately 169 million barrels of storage, enhancing China's ability to manage its oil imports further.

Global mining started 2026 with a strong rally, similar to the previous year's close, where gold prices are anticipated to reach $5,000 and copper regularly breaks all-time highs. Despite a thriving market for most mining stocks, a few underperformers exist, driven by factors beyond just rising metal prices. The collective value of the world's 50 largest mining stocks has comfortably surpassed $2 trillion, showing the industry's growth.

Several companies have emerged at the top of the mining rankings, with BHP and Rio Tinto being the traditional leaders. Recently, Agnico Eagle has joined the ranks of miners with market caps above $100 billion. This situation highlights a growing trend in the industry, where larger companies like Zijin Mining and Southern Copper have seen significant value increases, while established firms like BHP and Rio Tinto have struggled amidst doubts about potential mergers and acquisitions.

The underperformance of BHP and Rio Tinto is attributed to investor skepticism regarding their merger prospects, notably with Glencore. This skepticism contrasts with Glencore's robust stock growth. Other merger candidates like Anglo American and Teck Resources also show mixed performance, as the sector grapples with traditional giants trying to adapt amidst changing market dynamics.

In summary, while mining's largest firms seek mergers to generate value, they face challenges in keeping pace with newer, more dynamic players in the market. This stagnation contrasts with the rapid gains experienced by specialized commodity firms and raises questions about the effectiveness of traditional mining strategies in evolving market conditions.

Venezuela's oil sector is facing significant challenges, with U.S. President Donald Trump unsuccessfully urging oil executives to invest in revitalizing the industry. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips executives expressed that Venezuela is currently too risky for investment due to its regulatory environment and past losses. The oil industry in Venezuela began to decline after the nationalization of assets by the government of Hugo Chávez in 2007, making it difficult for foreign companies to remain in the country.

Despite the grim assessment from some executives, there are reasons for cautious optimism. Companies like Hilcorp and Chevron have expressed readiness to restore Venezuelan energy infrastructure and increase production. Currently, Venezuela’s oil production sits at about 1 million barrels per day, significantly lower than its historical peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s. U.S. refiners value Venezuelan crude, despite its challenging processing requirements due to its heavy composition.

However, increased availability of Venezuelan oil could negatively impact other heavy crude sources, such as Canadian and Mexican oil. Although demand for Canadian crude remains strong, the potential influx from Venezuela could lead to shifting dynamics in pricing and regional supplies. Investments in Venezuela's oil sector face high barriers, with estimates indicating that billions are required merely to maintain current production levels, let alone increase them.

Furthermore, Venezuela's energy infrastructure is in a dire state due to years of neglect. Many storage tanks and pipelines are non-operational, which greatly impacts overall efficiency. Analyses suggest that restoring this infrastructure will be extremely costly, with estimates running into tens of billions of dollars. Without substantial investment, the country’s oil output may remain stagnant.

In 2025, silver prices soared by 143%, driven by strong industrial and retail demand, marking a historic high of nearly $80 per ounce. The demand surge was fueled by increased inflows into silver ETFs and a rising requirement for silver in solar panels and electric vehicles, leading to a significant tightening of the physical silver market. Analysts from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, predict this deficit will continue throughout 2026 due to ongoing high investment demand.

Silver and platinum are benefiting from cuts in interest rates, making them more attractive as non-yielding assets. While their prices rose, there was a notable price volatility, largely dictated by positioning from non-commercial speculators. In contrast, demand from central banks, which is a major influence on gold prices, didn't significantly affect these precious metals.

China has recently restricted silver exports, further straining global inventories, particularly in London and Zurich, which has temporarily raised lease rates. Mexico, being the largest silver producer, is also expected to struggle with increased silver volumes due to declining ore grades and reduced operations at certain mines. Regarding platinum, its high prices may not align with fundamentals, despite a recent rally driven by the EU's delay on banning internal combustion vehicle sales.

Venezuela has renewed its claim over the Essequibo region, which is significant as it contains substantial oil reserves and represents about two-thirds of Guyana's total area. This renewed interest by Venezuela was fueled by its desire to access these oil resources, especially after ExxonMobil made major discoveries in the area from 2015 onward. Currently, Exxon has estimated crude reserves exceeding 11 billion barrels in the Stabroek Block in Guyana, with their production steadily increasing, projected to reach up to 1.7 million barrels daily by 2030.

With the recent ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States, there are expectations among analysts that Guyana's oil production can proceed without the looming threat of losing land to Venezuela. Observers have noted a sense of relief in the oil industry as the risk of Venezuelan aggression is diminished, especially since any military incursions would likely provoke an immediate U.S. response to protect business interests in oil.

ExxonMobil stands to benefit immensely from the stability in the region, as the company has established a profitable and operationally efficient presence in Guyana, supported by a welcoming government and no U.S. sanctions hindering its activities. CEO Darren Woods emphasized the importance of finding resources for the company's oil production and highlighted how the conditions in Guyana make it a more attractive investment compared to Venezuela, which has faced significant turmoil and restrictions.

Kal Tire's Mining Tire Group and the Australian firm Decoda have formed a strategic alliance aiming to enhance mines' productivity and efficiency through real-time detection of road hazards. This partnership has led to the development of a new system called KalPRO HaulSight, which leverages autonomous technology to identify and avoid road hazards that can damage tires and disrupt operations.

HaulSight uses Decoda's LiDAR and camera sensors mounted on haul trucks to provide immediate alerts about potential hazards, such as spillage and road conditions. This system helps fleet teams detect issues that could lead to tire damage and operational delays, thereby improving overall performance. The technology integrates with Kal Tire’s existing Tire & Operations Managing System, allowing for effective condition monitoring and management of work priorities.

The introduction of HaulSight not only enhances immediate operational visibility but also provides strategic insights for long-term planning. It enables mine sites to react promptly to road conditions, improving cycle speed and fuel efficiency. Testing in sub-zero conditions over the past 18 months has shown promising results, demonstrating HaulSight's adaptability and effectiveness across various mining environments.

Saudi Arabia is prioritizing the development of its extensive shale resources, particularly in the Jafurah basin, to enhance energy security and optimize exports. This initiative aims to reduce the country's dependence on burning crude oil for power, allowing for increased exports amid strict OPEC+ production management. The Kingdom's focus is also driven by the need to remain competitive in the global energy market, particularly in light of the U.S. shale boom that has changed market dynamics. The Jafurah project is seen as a cornerstone for future growth and export potential, with plans to begin exporting condensate soon.

The Jafurah project holds about 229 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and aims for a substantial increase in gas production, reaching 2 billion standard cubic feet per day by 2030. This increase is expected to support the growing domestic demand for power, which is rising annually. The initiative could also position Saudi Arabia as a key player in the gas market, especially in light of projections for significant global increases in gas demand driven by technology and climate factors.

Despite ambitious plans, skepticism remains about the accuracy of Saudi Arabia's projections regarding its oil and gas reserves and production capabilities. Historically, the Kingdom has been known to inflate its reserves, raising questions about the reliability of current forecasts. The production capacity claims have often been contradicted by actual production numbers, adding further doubt to the sustainability of these initiatives. Evaluating the Jafurah project's impact, it appears that the projected gas output may not be sufficient to meet both domestic needs and export ambitions by 2030.

The American Petroleum Institute reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories in the U.S., with a rise of 5.27 million barrels in the week ending January 9, following a reduction of 2.8 million barrels the week before. Additionally, the Department of Energy confirmed an increase in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve's inventories by 200,000 barrels, reaching 413.7 million barrels, part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Administration to replenish the national stockpile.

In terms of production, U.S. crude oil output decreased slightly to 13.811 million barrels per day from 13.827 million barrels per day, though this figure is still 248,000 barrels per day higher than the same time last year. On the trading front, Brent crude saw an uptick, trading at $65.38, reflecting a price increase, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose as well, indicating market reactions to economic uncertainties, including comments from President Trump regarding Iranian protests.

Gasoline inventories also witnessed another substantial increase of 8.23 million barrels for the same week, following a gain of 4.4 million barrels the previous week. As reported, gasoline inventories are currently 3% above the five-year average for this time of year, despite historically being noted as the lowest demand period for gasoline. Furthermore, distillate inventories also rose by 4.34 million barrels, although they remained 3% below the five-year average. Cushing's inventory, a key delivery hub for the WTI futures contract, rose by 945,000 barrels.

Hezbollah has established a significant presence in Colombia, largely due to its connections with Iran and a persistent weakness in local security. Its growth can be traced back to the Lebanese diaspora that settled in South America after Lebanon's civil war. This led to the formation of networks that not only facilitated recruitment but also financial support, allowing Hezbollah to engage in various illegal activities.

During the 1980s, Hezbollah took advantage of the ongoing civil conflict in Colombia to set up operations, especially in areas with large Lebanese communities, such as Maicao. Over the years, these operations have evolved from mere fundraising to serious engagement in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and money laundering, notably through alliances with local criminal syndicates like Oficina de Envigado. These activities have further destabilized Colombia, fostering a violent environment as various factions vie for control over lucrative drug trafficking routes.

Hezbollah's activities have strengthened in response to political developments in Venezuela, where the government under Nicolás Maduro has fostered closer ties with Tehran. These connections allow Hezbollah to conduct robust operations within Colombia, including training camps and logistical support for drug trafficking. The terrorist group's strategic links to Colombian illegal armed groups like FARC have facilitated a mutually beneficial relationship, bolstering both parties' capacities in the cocaine trade.

Recent investigations suggest that Hezbollah is poised to exploit Colombia's weak security landscape to carry out attacks against U.S. and Israeli interests. The group's evolving tactics signal a shift towards hybrid warfare, employing both criminal networks and ideological ties to target soft spots in the region. As violence escalates and recruitment within illegal armed groups grows, Hezbollah's potential for conducting operations in Colombia becomes a significant concern for regional and international security.